Year 3200 – Japan becomes extinct!

There is really good article in today’s FT called “Diminished Japan aims to turn baby bust into baby boom” by Clive Cookson. The research behind the article can be found on the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research web site.

A few key points:

On current trends, the Japanese will die out in the year 3200. This is the logical conclusion from extrapolating today’s figures. Japan’s current population is 127 Million.

In 2005 the total fertility rate (the average number of babies born during a woman's reproductive years) was just 1.25 (only South Korea had a lower figure). To maintain the population at a steady size Japan needs a fertility rate of 2.08, a level last seen 30 years ago.

The percentage aged 65 or more has risen from 5 per cent in 1950 to 17 per cent in 2000 and a projected 36 per cent in 2050. Just get your head around that last number. Over a third of all people in Japan will be aged 65+

The decline in the working-age population is already cutting Japan's annual growth rate by 0.4 per cent.

Astonishing.Dick Stroud